Scottish Socialist
Voice
Issue 320
8th February 2008
front page
The Great Power Rip Off
By Ken Ferguson
PITY
the poor power companies, that’s the almost daily message from
the sharp suited spin doctors as they tearfully tell customers of their
“deep regret” at the latest price hikes.
Of course there is no question, they assure us, of the power bosses actually
wanting to increase prices - it is all forced on them by those mysterious
creatures, market forces.
Sadly they point at rising prices for oil, coal, gas and other key factors
in their production costs and patiently explain that such increases
just have to be followed by a rise in the cost of energy.
The result is that, during January, over 9 million gas and electricity
customers had massive price rises imposed showing the fairy
tale that we live in a competitive market where the customer
is king to be straight from the pages of Harry Potter.
Far from the fantasy market in which power companies strive to outdo
each other with fierce price cutting and superb service, the customer
is faced with the brutal reality that all sources of electricity
are in the hands of profit hungry private firms.
And anybody who really believes that this handful of firms are in competition really does need to
take more water with it.
Essentially almost all
In an elegant office just a stones throw from
Bosses of the big firms meet at the ERA to discuss market conditions
and strategy in what is in effect a thinly disguised process to
rip off the public and safeguard their inflated profits and fat cat pay.
Gathered among the potted plants in their plush chairs for such highly
secret gathering are top bosses such as David Threlfall, chief
executive of Npower, Ian Peters, chief operating officer of British
Gas, and EDF big cheese Eva Eisen-Schimmel,
whose previous claim to fame was to oversee the launch of Häagen-Dazs ice cream in
ERA spokespeople underline the fact that these meetings never discuss
prices as such discussion would be illegal. So, of course, we must
conclude that when they put up prices one after the other it is purely
a coincidence.
Further reassurance that all is well came from the so called “regulator”
charged with keeping the power firms in line, the government’s
toothless watchdog Ofgem, who soothingly told angry customers there was
no evidence of anti-competitive behaviour and dismissed claims
of price fixing.
However sceptical campaigners called for an official inquiry into the
“obscene” profits being made by energy firms, claiming that consumers
were being “ripped off.”
The National Right to Fuel Campaign and public service union
Unison claimed increases in energy charges to consumers were almost
£2.5billion more than the extra costs in producing and selling
gas and electricity.
Even laid back Chancellor Alistair Darling was moved to action.
In a move which will doubtless have the power bosses trembling
he wrote to Sir John Mogg, chairman of
Ofgem, asking him to explain why fuel prices
were rising!
However the truth is that prices are still rising, and the entire machinery
of so called regulation and advice on switching your supplier
stands exposed for the hollow sham it is.
Well meaning calls to protect the poor are all very well but, twenty years
since it was handed to the fat cats, the entire power supply industry
is revealed as a dripping roast for the power bosses
which prioritises profits over public need.
As we prepare to see a range of major changes in how power is generated,
the time is now overdue to make sure that the planned wind farms
and wave power don’t result in handing our natural resources to the
profiteers.
If it was
page two
PCS Strikes Suspended -but workers keep up the pressure
By Richie Venton
THE
strikes threatened by the PCS union in the two giant departments
- Revenue and Customs and the Department of Work and
Pensions - on 31 January have been suspended.
The central factor behind the union’s suspension of the action
is that in both DWP and HMRC, talks have been conceded
by management - which was one of the union’s main demands.
The bosses have retreated in fear of the impact of industrial
action - especially in the Revenue where 31 January
was the deadline for tax self-assessment.
In HMRC, far-reaching promises of a moratorium on compulsory redundancies,
unreasonable travel to work times and office closures have
been given whilst talks are held.
Scottish Socialist Party members in the PCS, including leading branch
officers in both departments, have met, discussed and
welcomed the concession of talks and moratorium - won by
the planned strikes and overtime bans.
However, they also think this is a decisive time to keep
up the pressure on the bosses and the crisis-ridden
Labour government who are dictating the cuts to pay, jobs,
offices, flexi-time and public services.
In DWP there initially seemed to be no progress in response
to the solid two-day December strikes, but now talks
on pay have been conceded. Management doubtless feared
the impact of the action planned - which would have clobbered
them through a one-day strike followed by an overtime ban throughout
the month of February.
Members in the big office factories especially are calling
for an overtime ban as a powerful weapon, given the
heavy reliance on overtime to get services delivered
in understaffed offices in the aftermath of Labour’s job
cuts of the past 3 years.
SSP members and other PCS activists are insistent that talks must
now be held over a very short timescale - and that the union should
warn of new strike dates and overtime ban should they be delayed
or fail to win real concessions on pay.
In the case of HMRC, talks have been conceded and accompanied by
a moratorium on compulsory redundancies, moves to unreasonable
travel-to-work distances, and office closures.
The HMRC union Group Executive Committee called off the
ballot the night before the closing deadline.
SSP members in HMRC have welcomed the talks and moratorium,
and believe this is the result of the threat of united strike action
and an overtime ban.
But they also feel strongly there is an urgent need for car park/office
meetings of union members to explain the situation, and
to move motions at every meeting that welcomes talks and the
moratorium, but calls on the union to initiate an immediate ballot
for strikes and overtime ban if there are any delays in talks and/or
failure to make real gains on key issues, including vitally important
questions like attacks on flexi working arrangements (as well
as the central ones of jobs, office closures, privatisation).†
John Davidson, PCS branch vice-president at the East Kilbride Revenue
site told me
“I have spoken at several members’ meetings over the past few
days. Members are glad there are talks, but sceptical about
how far they can trust management to make real progress,
given our experience of them over issues like LEAN working
practices.
“Members are vigilant and have agreed overwhelmingly at the meetings
that the union negotiators and PCS Group Executive Committee
must insist on a very tight, short timescale for talks, and that
if management renege on their promises, cause the talks to break down, or fail to come
up with the goods, then we should launch a programme
of industrial action.”
PCS members need to keep up the pressure on bosses who have already
begun to retreat in fear of strikes and overtime bans.
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY DEATHS TOP 50 AS MPS WARNED OF SAFETY WATCHDOG “DUMBING DOWN”
AS
experts from the
The as yet unnamed man was killed at a luxury flats development
at the Ferrera Quay complex, Swansea Marina, when he fell from
scaffolding on 22 January. Despite emergency treatment he
died in hospital several days later.
The construction union UCATT pointed out that a variety of
factors have led to an increase in construction deaths in
recent years, including cuts in the Health and Safety Executive,
which has reduced the number of inspections and prosecutions.
The increasingly casualised nature of the industry has also
reduced effective safety training of workers, it said.
Regional secretary for
“While it is almost impossible to make the industry entirely
safe, construction employers in general could be doing far
more to make sites safer.”
The union’s concern over safety cuts was echoed by the IOM
expert’s report to the
The IOM’s written evidence to the select committee notes
that budget cuts combined with a “serious weakening of HSE’
s specialist expertise” and “an increased focus on sickness absence
and incapacity, at the expense of the control of risks at
work and the protection of workers from exposure to hazards... means
that HSE is under-resourced to meet its core responsibilities.”
And the experts issued the grim warning to the MPs saying
that “the low public and political profile of occupational
health have, we believe contributed to a ‘dumbing down’ of
occupational health and safety particularly health.
They also warn “HSE seems to be trying to do too much by
co-operation and persuasion, at the expense of its role in
giving strong and clear direction, and in strong enforcement.”
The reduced enforcement threat means “many companies think
HSE is without teeth,” the submission says.
SSP to stand in Cambuslang
THE
Scottish Socialist Party is standing local community activist
David McClemont as our candidate in the Cambuslang East
council byelection (polling day 6 March).
David has stood in this seat several times before, and is determined
to offer voters a genuine socialist alternative to the
parties of poverty, poor housing, PFI/privatisation and
the monstrosity of the M74 extension.
The poor condition of
some local housing; the lack of affordable accommodation for
young people; rising rents and mortgages; and the failure by
The SSP has a proud record of resisting the obscenity of between
£500million and £1billion being squandered on an extension
to the M74 that will stir up underground pollution in
parts of the town, add to air pollution and asthma, and
which displays both Labour and the SNP’s preference for
this anti-people waste of money over investment in an
extension of decent public transport. We will highlight
the SSP’s demand for free public transport.
Privatisation of council services and energy suppliers has
led to gross profiteering at public expense. The SSP will use
the by-election to agitate against the horrendous price rises
in gas and electricity, creating bills of over £1,000 a year
- feeding the profit of Scottish Power, Scottish Gas and
Shell, who have just amassed £13 billion in profits.
David and the SSP are calling for public ownership of
gas, electricity and
David added, “The SSP is the only party that has fought for
10 years to scrap the council tax, taxing the rich instead, and
for free healthy school meals for all kids on a permanent basis
- not just the short-term government experiment in some schools.
I am proud to fight for a party that will shake up the
complacent
page three
What do Wall Street and The City have to do with me ?
Night
after night the news is dominated by news of sliding stock exchanges,
plummeting share values and dire predictions of recession and hard
times to come.
One of the key ways by which capitalism maintains its dominance is
by simply throwing up a veil of mystification around its work.
For example the vast majority of people have little knowledge of or
probably interest in the workings of the FT index or the movements
of stock markets from
Nevertheless we are all surrounded with the consequences of the apparently
obscure workings of those key components of the capitalist system.
That’s why almost everybody from high profile financiers to the Left
is predicting the real prospect of a recession with the resulting
cuts in living standards, job security, house repossessions and soaring
prices.
So what has happened to the economy which only a few short months
ago was supposed to be Prime Minister Brown’s ace card?
Stripping away the jargon the answer comes down to two very everyday
items—houses and cars.
The crisis sweeping the stock exchanges started off in the so called
“sub prime” housing loans market in the
The idea was that by “bundling” good and dodgy loans together that
everything would be ok and purchasers of the loans would have a steady
income stream generated from the borrower’s repayments.
But the snag came when under pressure sub prime borrowers failed to
make their payments and rendered their loans more or less worthless.
However the real problem is that the duff loans were bundled in what
the dealers term Collaterised Debt Obligations
with sound ones and the banks are keeping quiet on just what amount
of problem loans they have.
In turn this means that since nobody knows how sound each bank is
nobody is lending money but experts have estimated that the duff loans
have cost the banks more that $1,000 billion.
It is the resulting block on lending that has sparked the Northern
Rock crisis which has cost
It will also mean that lack of investment will imperil jobs and uncertain
house prices will force consumers to slash loan backed spending.
All this points to a recession in which unemployment is likely to
rise and living standards fall.
Bad as this is, the other factor, cars, needs to be added to the pile.
With oil at a record $100 a barrel the consequences for a heavily
oil dependent economy is severe.
It should be remembered that high oil prices helped create the last
two global recessions in the early 1990s and 1980s.
At the heart of it all is the fact--continually praised by New Labour—that
the
Behind the façade of highly slick computerised money making stands
the reality that we live in an economy with more in common with the
workings of Ladbrokes than one designed to meet human need.
In the short term their will no doubt be sharp battles ahead to defend
living standards, combat rising prices and defend jobs.
However as long ago as the 1860s Marx described the crisis ridden
nature of capitalism and despite all that has happened since the core
truth of this view has been demonstrated time and time again.
That’s why, while it fights to defend jobs, working conditions and
living standards and for houses and health the SSP also demands a
new economy.
Such an economy would start the task of harnessing the stupendous
technological and material resources which already exist to meet the
needs of society rather than the greed of the few.
By Colin Turbett
AFTER
many years of lobbying and grass roots activity the Community
of Arran Seabed Trust (COAST) have at last succeeded in
winning official designation of a small area of Arran’s
coastline around
This campaign has won mass support on the Isle of Arran and
was supported in the last Scottish Parliament by Frances Curran
and Rosie Kane, SSP MSPs.
Years and years of over-fishing by increasingly sophisticated methods
decimated stocks of commercial fish in the Clyde area (as
in most other coastal areas of
Some members of the fishing community were able to continue
to make a living through clam dredging – literally dragging
the seabed for shell fish and raking up everything else
there too.
Local divers noticed that this activity was destroying the seabed
and began to argue that this was unsustainable – leading
to COAST’s formation.
After initial resistance local “mobile” fishing boat owners have
realised that there would be no future for them to build up
shellfish stocks.
The same argument applies to other fish stocks and it is hoped
that regeneration will lead to a revival of commercial fishing
in the
Leading
“COAST is delighted with the announcement by the Cabinet
Secretary.
“Without the help from our many friends, the
“We are now looking forward to continue to work with the
fishing community of the
What is important about this local campaign is that it shows how
local communities have the capacity to determine their own
future – this conservation initiative required no big brother legislation
from
Hopefully other coastal communities will argue for similar
schemes - the fishing industry does not have to die.
New Labour Racist On The Rampage
By Colin Turbett
SCOTTISH
Gypsy Travellers have a hard enough time facing prejudice
and discrimination without Members of Parliament jumping
on the bandwagon in clear populist attempts to win local
right wing votes. Central Ayrshire’s Brian Donohoe (Labour) has called, in the local
He then wonders why they will not meet with him stating: “How
can these people be referred to as a
community?”
Although examples are not given, it seems Donohoe
is upset that Travellers who park their caravans on disused industrial sites
and other waste ground leave a mess.
Well as we see in
In fact Gypsy Travellers are probably better at recycling than
many other members of the wider community – this has been
part of their way of life for centuries.
Where can Ayrshire’s Gypsy Travellers go when the two remaining
official sites are full ? Donohoe
suggests that the two local authorities “can do nothing about
the problem”.
What he really means is that they can do nothing to harass people
and move them on, and states his intention to pursue changes
in the law to allow this.
In a clear attempt to inflame matters he states that “most of
the travellers (in Ayrshire)…arrive in an area to trash other people’s
property.” Such language is a gift to right wing racists and
fascists.
There has been a suggestion from local activists that the Travellers
Donohoe has long reviled should park
outside his house.
Whilst we doubt they would want Donohoe as a neighbour, there is little doubt that Gypsy
Travellers, long marginalised, need to renew campaigns to achieve acceptance
and recognition.
This is a matter over which the SSP should offer every
assistance.
page four
Deforestation Growing In The Amazon
By Roz Paterson
DEFORESTATION
of the Amazon rainforest is accelerating at an unprecedented
rate, due to the rising price of beef and soya.
It has been officially estimated that, between August and
December 2007, at least 3235 square kilometres were cleared, though
the real figure is likely to be much higher. Possibly twice that.
This news comes as something of a shock given that, over the
last three years, there had been a steady decline in the rate
of Amazon deforestation.
This decline did not come about through any action of the
Brazilian government, who have failed time and again to lay
down any binding legislation to protect one of the world’s
most precious assets.
The real cause, of course, was the market. Falling beef and
soya prices simply made it less worthwhile to invade regions
of rainforest and tear it all down to put in vast cash crops.
Thus, the government that lays such store by its supposedly
green credentials, is in fact just sitting back and letting
the world market call the tune.
Says Paulo Adario, Amazon coordinator of Greenpeace:
“If President Lula is serious about
In truth, private companies and cartels are allowed free rein
in the rainforest, where land, often just stolen, is cheap
and labour even cheaper.
A 2006 Greenpeace investigation lifted the lid on soya cartel
Cargill, Bunge and Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), who act as
bankers to Brazilian farmers. But instead of loans, they issue seed
and fertilizer and collect the finished product at harvest
time.
Thus, if soya is what they want, soya is what they get.
This single cartel controls nearly 60 per cent of soya production
in
Another big player is Blairo Maggi, the ‘Soya King’, and currently governor
of Mato Grosso, the most deforested state in
He has, naturally, a little help from his friends in the international
finance sector, including the World Bank, who deemed his soya business
a ‘low environmental risk’, and other major foreign banks, none
of whom could be bothered to conduct an environmental impact assessment.
No wonder, the returns on their investments are fantastic;
what do they care if indigenous populations are made homeless,
wildlife is driven to extinction and the planet burns?
An environmental impact assessment of the soya industry, whose
product is shifted the 7000 miles to
Deforestation in the Amazon alone accounts for 20 per cent
of total global greenhouse gas emissions.
When it has its roots in the ground, the rainforest is one of
the planet’s most important carbon sinks - that is, it sucks up
massive amounts of CO2, thus preventing it being released
into the atmosphere, where it contributes to global warming.
But when it’s burnt - the cheapest way to clear land - it belches
vast quantities of stored up CO2 into the air and, ultimately,
onto all of us.
Thus,
Who wants a windmill?
RENEWABLE
energy at any cost?
Perhaps not.
Though the British Wind Energy Association insist that the £500million, 181-turbine
farm proposed for the farflung Hebridean
The developers - energy giant AMEC in tandem with British Energy
Renewables, also a private firm - and the Lewis council plan
to take the fight to
Too bad the proposed site, the 164,000 acre Lewis Peatlands, has
been designated a Special Protection Area by.the EU.
This hugely important stretch of wetlands, which harbours substantial
numbers of rare breeding birds, including greenshanks and
golden eagles, would be irreversibly damaged by the project.
Windfarms have a benign image, but those turbines are not supported
by modest tines that you stick in the ground like you would
a For Sale sign. They require substantial concrete bases that,
on a peatlands site like this, would necessitate a great deal
of upheaval, including drainage.
Unfortunately, windfarm debates are generally characterised as
between NIMBY homeowners who consider turbines to be blots
on the landscape and earnest ecoentrepreneurs trying to save the
world.
Yeah, right.
The ‘windrush’ is being conducted, thanks to our deregulated energy
industry, by private companies who smell big money. Meanwhile,
the people living on or near our last tracts of wilderness are
being ignored, the areas they seek to protect trampled upon,
and alternative sites bypassed.
Better surely to think small and local. Many energy experts, not
in the pay of major corporations, suggest that microgeneration is
key to a sustainable future, where energy is generated and used
locally.
A four turbine development on the shores of the
To meet our EU renewables target, we must provide 40 percent of
total energy from renewable sources by 2020; roughly eight
times the amount we do now.
It’s time to think smaller and more imaginatively. Trashing our
landscape is no way to save the planet.
page five
LETTERS
The
recent increases in energy costs, coming on top of several years of
double-digit, inflation busting rises, has made it clear that it’s
time the Scottish Government conducted an urgent inquiry into the feasibility
of nationalising
In the space of four or five years, the cost of energy has nearly doubled.
There is a window of opportunity here for the nationalisation of domestic
energy supplies in
The days of energy companies profiting out of the cold and misery of
the Scottish people, particularly the poor and elderly, are numbered
and needs to stop.
The decision by the Conservative administration of another country,
several hundred miles away some two decades ago to sell out this
vital pinnacle of
The nationalisation of
Tam Graham, Glasgow
Red/Green
I wonder if any others have seen Justin Kenrick’s article
in Scottish† Left Review this month in which he argues for a Red/Green
‘Transitional
He argues for its operation both in and outside the electoral arena.
In the context of advancing climate change, he claims the only
reasonable route is to demand the impossible. Do readers of Scottish
Socialist Voice think this strategy is reasonable, impossible,
or both?
Soap
Box
John Miller
The Need For Police Democracy
THERE
are a number of problems that surround the relationship between the
police and the working classes, but many working class people
regard the police as uncaring and arrogant.
This is not helped by the new paramilitary style uniform code of the
working police officer, but it is more than just that. Many working
people in their experience of contact with police feel that in the
eyes of the police there are only two classes of person. Police and others,
and only police are deserving of respect.
Whether you are a perpetrator, a witness or a victim, the attitude
of the police is equally offhand, supercilious and arrogant.
The result of this is that many people offer no co-operation to the
police not because of fear of reprisal but because of the arrogant
way the general public is treated by the officers of the force.
This means that although they might promote intelligence led policing,
if they can get no information from the general public, the police
are forced to rely on criminal informants.
The obvious paradox in this is that the crime fighting alliance then
becomes an alliance between the police and the criminal!
In order to induce these criminals to give information it is necessary
to overlook minor offences, but a minor offence in the eyes of the police
might be a major offence in the eyes of the victim.
By trading away justice for the small people in their minor issues
(and it is hard to commit a major fraud or theft against the poor since
they have very little) the poorest are denied the right to see
justice done and compensation orders awarded.
This is supposed to make it easier to secure convictions against major
criminals, but the same arrogance which exists at lower levels also
permeates the higher levels of the force, and how often have we seen
major trials collapse because the police have not observed the
rules of custody or evidence.
The police present these as trials which have had a perverse result
because of a ‘technicality’ and use it to try to justify increased
powers when in reality it is often the abuse of the powers which
they already have which is the problem.
People are able to perceive daily the fact that if a poor person is
the victim of a burglary then the police will try to suggest that the
crime is due to the fact that they had inadequate security and
will suggest new improved locks etc.
They will blame the victim instead of catching the criminal.
The fact that better locks only displace the burglary to another (poorer)
household with less expensive security is ignored.
The rich already have better locks, alarm systems and often private
security. Similarly if a car is broken into then often the police will not
turn out at all but only give the victim a crime report number for
insurance purposes.
The police will of course argue that they have a problem of manpower.
It is, however, not quite so obvious that they are undermanned when
some homeless person shoplifts a packet of biscuits from a supermarket
because her kids are hungry.
There always appear to be enough police to send two officers to deal
with her.
We might speculate that poor people stealing from other powerless poor
people is not a problem for the police, but if poor people are allowed
to steal from the rich and powerful then it challenges the whole notion
of legitimacy of property on which capitalist society is based,
and cannot therefore be tolerated in any form, however small, by a police
force controlled by the rich and powerful.
One of the problems of manpower is also attributable to the arrogance
of the force. The fact that officers patrol in pairs in
Many of the public, as previously stated, will not be seen to co-operate
with the police, and since the Sheriffs in
The contention that officers are tied up on paperwork when they should
be on the streets is possibly true, but that is because clear procedures
and chains of custody must be fully documented because of a lack of
confidence in police by the courts and the public, subsequent upon
a number of high profile cases where evidence has been manufactured,
manipulated or withheld from the defence resulting in gross miscarriages
of justice.
Were police to be trusted by the courts then they would be able to
double the number of locations where there is a police presence without
a single additional officer.
If the public could be convinced that the police are on their side
then the pressure for ever increasing police budgets could be massively
reduced because corroboration would be easier to find and intelligence
led policing would be able to obtain real untainted intelligence.
If the relationship between the police and the public were improved
then the public would perhaps again be policed by consent instead
of policed according to class interest.
Perhaps part of the solution might lie in direct recruitment into an
officer grade.
The current top echelons of the police service came up through the
ranks.
As in all bureaucracies personnel tend to rise by not rocking the boat
and this can mean turning a blind eye to malpractice.
The memoirs of retired senior police officers are full of ‘comical’
anecdotes of malpractice in the cause of ‘justice’ as defined by
the police on the hoof.
But it is not their job to decide justice, that is for the court, however
flawed that might seem.
Although as previously stated they work always in pairs, when a police
officer is convicted of an offence in connection with his position
it is very rare for his partner to have observed his misconduct and
to be called to give evidence.
I do not believe that this is a coincidence.
The bad apples cannot always be paired together and to believe that
stretches naiveté too far. There is a closing of ranks and a culture
of concealment.
An increase in democratic control of the police is an obvious necessity.
We should be appointing senior police officers by direct democratic
means and have effective democratic mechanisms by which to hold
them accountable and if appropriate remove them.
The current situation whereby the police investigate their own alleged
misconduct is highly unsatisfactory. Everyone knows that self-regulation
is usually self-serving in any sphere and they cannot continue to be
a law unto themselves.
They are institutionally arrogant, and were they effective that might
be excusable, but they are not.
Their arrogance has a direct effect on their effectiveness in terms
of prevention and detection of crime and might account in some small
part for the exceedingly high crime rates and exceedingly low rates
of detection, and it has become so bad that many crimes go unreported
because the public sees it as pointless.
The response of the police service to rising crime and falling detection
rates will inevitably be to try to increase their budgets, increase
their manpower, improve their equipment, and almost certainly to increase police
salaries (ostensibly to attract a better quality of recruit, and if
the quality of recruits is as we have seen on recent television documentaries
it certainly wants improving), but all of this will be to no avail
if the present regime cannot better control its public perception
and performance at the grass roots street level.
If they continue to see the public as the enemy then they invite reciprocation.
centre pages
The Market’s Money Madness
As
global stock markets go through a roller coaster ride, there is
talk of a recession and the sub-prime crisis is leading to
billions of dollars of losses for the world’s major investment
banks. Still there is no one to bail out Northern Rock and
the US Federal Reserve suddenly cuts interest rates by 0.75
per cent while a rogue trader losses $7billion pounds.
Raphie de Santos tries to make sense of it all, drawing the strands together
to show that yet another of capitalism’s ‘golden ages’ is over and
the fight for a socialist economy remains firmly on the agenda.
THE major falls seen in all the world’s stock markets mark
the end of a long period of capitalist expansion which started
in early 1980s. Stock markets discount the future and they
are discounting major falls in the earnings of corporations
around the world. In other words they are forecasting recession
- two quarters of successive negative gross domestic
product (GDP) growth - and periods of stagnation across all
the major economies.
The turbulence is far from over and stock markets hate uncertainty
and there is so much of it around. In the weeks ahead
we can expect more dramatic falls and partial recoveries.
This is because nobody knows the full extent of the subprime crisis
and its impact on the world financial system and economy.
While it widely held view that the
The most optimistic view is that the
At the roots of the crisis is the US Federal Reserve (akin
to the UK Treasury) decision to cut interest rates aggressively
in 2001 to avert a deep recession and help financial markets recover
from the bursting of the dot boom bubble.
This led to an inflated housing market and cheap credit,
leading to a big increase in credit in particular to those on
lower incomes. From this policy flowed the sub-prime lending
boom and repackaging of this debt and the seeds of inflation.
Capitalism is caught between a rock and hard place. On the
one hand it needs to cut interest rates to increase the amount
of money in circulation and ease credit repayments but on
the other hand inflation is on the rise because of the demand
that has been fuelled by years of cheap credit and growing
demand from
Cutting interest rates has a very limited shelf life as if
they run with the policy for too long then the major developed economies
will start importing inflation because their currencies will
be weaker against the currencies of the countries they
are importing from.
Already the bond markets are implying that interest rates
will have to go back up within six months to a year to curb
inflation.
All this is combined with end of the benefits of the technological
boom that started in the 1980s - productivity gains are
being offset with lower profit levels as more and more of
the production process is carried out by technology and not
humans meaning a reduction in new value or profits being
produced.
In this article we will take a look at:
*
the
* sub-prime lending
* shift the debt off my books (engineered financial products)
* the kings clothes
*
impact of
* the Soc Gen and market turbulence
* what it all means for ordinary people
And how they are all interrelated and could lead to biggest financial and economic crisis since the 1970s.
US Housing Boom and the FED
The
boom in the
This created a boom in housing construction, a big increase
in the paper value of
With short-term interest rates at around 2 per cent banks
went out looking for new potential clients.
Interest rates normally increase gradually the longer the
loan is for. The idea is that the longer the time of the
loan the more chance that someone will not be able to
repay it.
The lender is paid a premium for the risk of not being fully
repaid. The Fed cutting rates so aggressively for shortdated loans
that this opened up many new transactions for banks and other financial
institutions.
They could borrow from each other at low rates for short
periods of time and roll the loans over when they matured.
At the same time they could lend at higher rates for longer
dated loans. There was a fat spread between where they
could borrow and where they could lend.
As long as interest rates kept low for borrowing for short
periods of time they could carry on making money.
All sorts of financial products - subprime loans, normal
mortgages without offsetting customer deposits (Northern Rock)
and Collateralised Debt Obligations (CDOs) - were designed around
this strategy.
It provided capitalism with new pools of credit to fuel its
booms and soften its recessions. We were in a new ‘golden age’
of capitalism where all the old problems of boom and slump
had been eliminated. But this market has, as we will
see, has blown up.
It has brought the great credit boom, which stated after
the Second World War to an end.
Capitalism will now find it difficult to find sources of
credit to manage the fluctuations which are inherent in the system
making more frequent and longer recessions likely.
Sub-prime Lending
In
the
A new sub-prime market was created of heavily indebted individuals,
low or middle-income households and even people on social
security benefits.
This type of lending spread to other parts of the world -
particularly the
With interest rates as low as 2 per cent lenders could still
charge 6-8 per cent to sub-prime lenders to be compensated for
extra risk and still make fat profits. The loans were typically mortgages
or loans secured on homes.
Shift the Debt off My Books
Traditionally
banks and other financial institutions have financed their loans
and mortgages through the deposits they receive from their
customers.
This limited the amount of credit they would offer.
At the start of this century they moved to a new model where
they sell on mortgages and loans (personal, car and
credit) onto the bond markets.
This meant a growth in credit. But at the same time the initial
lenders no longer have the incentive to check if the
borrower is able to repay the loans as they are offloading
their risk onto someone else.
The business proved extremely profitable for the banks because
of the fat spreads we talked about earlier and they
used loan and mortgage brokers, who took a fee, to aggressively
sell these products to the sub-prime market.
In the
The Kings Clothes
The
Investment Banks took these sub-prime loans and ‘engineered’
them into complex financial products.
Their value was not decided like traditionally shares by
an open liquid market place with many buyers and sellers but
by complex models.
They were valued by the investment banks themselves based
on an assumption about how many people would default
on the loan and the relationship between the borrowers.
The rate of defaults could be observed but were massively
underestimated. The relationship between borrowers (correlation)
could not be observed and was estimated quite liberally.
As the number of defaults in sub-prime market increased
quite rapidly the value of these instruments fell dramatically.
Defaults increased as the Fed pushed up short-term rates
to curb inflation and the housing market.
They did not fully understand the link between property prices,
interest rates, the sub-prime market, these structured
financial products and the financial system.
The market for these products dried up in the summer of 2007
and rumours swept the market that major banks were in
trouble that is the losses on these products could cause
bankruptcies.
The inter-bank lending market - were Northern Rock borrowed
its money - dried up as banks stopped lending to each
other as no one knew who might go bankrupt.
So far the investment banks have reported $100 billion of
loses and this is a conservative number.
As we mentioned earlier these instruments are based on an
estimate of the relationship between borrowers. Some banks,
only a minority, are using an independent estimate which
has seen the value of these instruments fall by 80 per
cent over a year.
If all banks were to move to this estimate the losses are
likely to be in the region of $500billion to $1000billion with
many likely bankruptcies causing a potential crisis in the
world’s financial system.
Many of the banks have off loaded these products onto pension
funds and insurance companies which mean the person
on the street could be facing heavy losses as well.
Most of these write downs have occurred in the last quarter
of 2007 and will be reported in the next couple of months.
The problem is that nobody knows who owns these products
and where the next time bomb will explode.
For instance, the town of
Many
economic commentators believe that the existence of these
markets and the restoration of capitalism in the former so
called ‘socialist states’ will lead to a softening of the
recession and even the possibility that most countries outside the
There is a double-edged sword with this argument.
One, these countries demand for raw materials and food have
pushed inflation up globally which limits the scope for interest
rate cuts in the
Two, banks and financial institutions in these countries
are exposed to subprime products - nobody knows by how much
of course ñ and this will limit lending and credit and slow
their economies.
Three, a lot of the wealth in these countries is based on
the paper profits of private individuals investing in the
local stock markets. Much of this has been wiped out
by recent market falls and this will reduce consumer confidence
and dampen the economies. Four, recessions in the west
will reduce demand for their products and slow their economies
down further.
Finally, the
All these factors could combine with what is happening in
the west to create a truly global slump of 1930s proportions.
Soc Gen and Market Turbulence
Some
parts of the financial markets have tried to blame the market
falls on the rogue trader at Soc Gen. This is just wish full
thinking, trying to deflect attention away from the real
fundamental problems we have discussed.
The Fed has stated they had no knowledge of the near $7billion
trading loss at Soc Gen when they made the decision
last week to cut rates by 0.75 per cent.
The losses meant that the trader had open positions (investments)
worth about $80billion.
It points to gross ineptitude by the bank’s internal risk
management. They must have had to post $1billion to $4billion a
day to the financial markets (margin payments).
They to would have been a large percentage of the positions
on several European markets (open interest).
How this was not picked up was not down to a trader hacking
into internal accounting systems but gross ineptitude as
the margin payments and open interest are derived from each
local financial system and the trader would not have had
the skill and the knowledge to hack into these systems.
Unwinding the investments may have accounted for some of
the losses in
What it All Means for Ordinary People - Capitalism’s Reaction
Falling
profit levels, recession and the credit crunch will see an
all out assault by capitalism on ordinary people in 2008.
We can expect to see attempted wage cuts, productivity increases,
layoffs and workplace closures. Credit will be harder to
come by and banks will be very tough in dealing with defaults.
We are likely to see a much higher rate of house repossessions
and personal bankruptcies in 2008. This together with inflation
edging higher, which is lagging the decline in demand, will
mean real cut in living standards and hardship for many
working people in 2008.
We will also see cuts in public services and rises in council
tax particularly from fiscal year 2008/2009 as government
revenues come in way below government estimates with
a declining GDP.
During 2003-2005 in the developing world the world’s major
financial institutions have passed up the opportunity to ease
the grip of their suffocating loans.
As these institutions seek to put their own houses in order
they will likely tighten the grip on the poor south, leading
to more poverty and death.
Unlike capitalism’s last major offensive against the poor
in the late 1970s, working people’s organisations are much
weaker and the demographics of capitalism have changed
dramatically.
But it does not mean there will not be a fight back.
In 2008 Socialists will have plenty of opportunities to stand
alongside working people and continue the fight for a rationale economy
based on the democratic decided needs of the majority as
they stand up against capitalism’s onslaught.
[1] Raphie de Santos is a former head of equity derivatives research and strategy at Goldman Sachs International and now works in fund management
page eight
Scottish Activists Gather For Palestinian Solidarity
By Allan Armstrong
OVER
120 people attended the very successful day school organised by
the Scottish Palestinian Solidarity Campaign, in the
Even as the speakers were addressing the conference, historic events
were taking place. Palestinians in
Ever since the Palestinians had the temerity to elect a Hamas government,
in democratic elections in 2006, every effort has been made to
negate this by an alliance of Olmert, Mubarak, Bush and Blair/Brown.
They have turned
The comparison, made by one of the day’s speakers, is that
of the Warsaw Ghetto under the Nazis.
Now Palestinians were pulling down the walls and breaking
free into
Egyptian armed forces, urged on by the Israeli and
However, as Moshe Machover, one of the day’s speakers pointed
out, the protesters were involved in nonviolent mass
action, but many were also armed.
So, if Mubarak unleashed his much superior armed forces,
there would still be consequences, not least in the
seething slums of
Moshe Machover is a former member of the Mazpen, an Israeli socialist
party. He used the example of the current ‘spillover’ of
the Palestinian cause into an adjacent state, to put
forward an interesting proposition.
This challenges both those who look to a future two-state
(
They broke up a much larger area, which had long been jointly inhabited
by a wide variety of peoples, Muslim, Christian, Jewish, Druze
and others. He looked to this much broader area to provide
the only territory that could offer the land and resources
for a real solution to the conflicts.
Joel Kovel, an American anti- Zionist and ecosocialist, outlined
the historical origins of Judaeophobia in
Although Zionism grew in response to this threat, it never challenged
its existence. It has frequently cooperated with the most rabid
Judaeophobes, and always looked for an imperialist sponsor, first
the
Zionism maintains that ‘anti- Semitism’ (in which it does
not include non-Jewish Semitic peoples like the Arabs)
is hardwired into the make-up of all non-Jews, so that the only
defence is to create an exclusively Jewish state -
In the process,
Therefore, it is not surprising that the Israeli state itself
should already have developed marked Apartheid features,
whilst the position of Palestinians, living in the occupied territories,
resembles that of Jews who once lived, in the ghettoes of eastern
Europe, before the Holocaust.
Ghada Karmi, a Palestinian writer living in
It does what it does, knowing it will not be condemned or
criticised by the global power holders. The 30 year
occupation of the West Bank,
Nevertheless,
Ronit
Kardishay is a member of New Profile, a feminist organisation, which
gives support to those young Israelis wishing to avoid the
military draft.
She outlined the extent of militarization of Israeli society, which
is in a state of permanent war and constant fear-mongering.
The
Western media likes to portray the schooling of young Palestinians
as ‘jihad orientated’.
Ronit showed the influence of the military penetrates deep
into the Israeli education system, right down to primary
level.
Plenty of time was given to questions and contributions from
the floor.
A wide range of viewpoints was expressed.
The whole day was very well organised, with excellent food provided.
A financial appeal was made to win support for a number of events
to show solidarity with the Palestinian people at this crucial time.
Helen
and
By Morag Balfour
THE
story is not a new one.
Rampant, bolshy peace women landing up in a Scottish
Courtroom has somehow become a bit ‘everyday’ for us
now.
Helen John is 69 and Georgina Smith is 77 and they ought
to know better.
These are powerful women who channel their rage and
commit criminal acts motivated by love.
These are serious women, kind women and, occasionally, scary
women.
They spent a good 15 minutes painting
They had a wide-ranging rant about
They presented an unrelenting and thoroughly unrepentant brick
wall of defiance during their trial.
I bet that Sheriff has never encountered such stubborn folk
in a courtroom.
What kind of people do that sort of thing though?
These women are pensioners and their behaviour is far
from the norm.
I first met Helen John when she was held on remand at
Cornton Vale. I was one of many visitors.
A good few peacenik women were in Cornton Vale at that
time and they’d organised a protest - a silent one -
and the authorities had clearly overreacted to it.
A new Trident Sub had been launched on the world and
the occasion had to be marked somehow.
I was led, unusually, into a wee room with a perspex divider
in its centre. Helen was brought in via another door
and was seated on the other side of the plastic divider.
She was no threat to anyone but the prison had a point
to make, and we spent a lot of time pouring derision on
it during that visit. I attended the trial that followed in
Helensburgh District Court.
It was a small thing for me to go and support; yet Helen seemed
moved deeply by the gesture.
I saw her some months later in
There was a luxurious deep filled bath, and we had warmed
croissants for breakfast. On home territory she is the
warmest of people.
If on the other hand you meet her in court she is a fearsome
character. This woman is amazing and inspiring.
Georgina Smith is gentler and more mischievous than Helen.
Her love of giving false names to the police when under
arrest is legendary. I remember clearly the ‘Laura Norder’
incident.
The police knew this to be a false name and she was detained
overnight for a court appearance the next day. She stuck
to her guns and maintained that Laura Norder was her
name, and in the end the JP hadn’t the stomach to punish
her for it and threw out the case.
It lead to the fantastic headline in the following day’s
newspapers - “No room for Laura Norder in Helensburgh
District Court”.
When I think of
We’d sit having a blether over a cup of tea at Peaton Glen
Wood. Most Trident Ploughshares camps north of the border
have been based there.
Georgina bought the land direct from the Ministry of Defence.
They weren’t to know of her Greenham history.
It’s pretty funny really and has caused the MOD so much
grief over the years.
Both
I suspect she enjoys painting actions because there is a lower
impact on her body.
There’s also something seriously cathartic about that form
of expression.
Georgina and Helen are great people who’ve spent decades
working for peace. If they teach one thing it’s that we
don’t have to be dull when we age.
The nerve of them though - plodding on up to the High Court
of a Sunday morning with paint, a point and an attitude
- you have to love them for that.
The law matters and breaches of it must be exposed and
railed against.
page nine
Who’s Choice ?
Juno
(12A),
Directed by Jason Reitman
Out 8 February 2008
by Wullie McGartland
I
must admit I approached this movie with a great deal of apprehension.
Every review I had read had claimed the film was putting
forward an antiabortion message.
However after watching Juno, I couldn’t disagree more.
Juno MacGuff (Ellen Page) is a sixteen year old high school
student who discovers she is pregnant after she decides
it’s time to lose her virginity to her friend Bleeker (Michael
Cera) - and take his while she’s at it.
I say, she decided, because Juno is a strong, independent,
sarcastic, funny, opinionated young woman who takes charge
of the world around her.
She finally accepts that she is pregnant after three separate
test on a pregnancy “piss stick” - with the help of
a gallon of Sunny Delight - and sets out to deal with the
situation on her own terms.
She contacts the local woman’s clinic for an appointment
to see about an abortion. While at the clinic she decides
that this is not what she wants to do, instead she wants
to have the child and put it up for adoption.
This is were I differ from other critics, who claim her refusal
to have an abortion is from a political pro-life position.
It’s definitely not how I interpreted it, Juno is a strong character,
who weighs up her options and chooses adoption, this being
the important part she chooses.
Juno then sets out to find a couple to adopt her baby, she
duly finds Mark and Vanessa - a yuppie couple unable to
have a child themselves - in the classifieds of the Penny
Saver.
She starts a friendship with Mark, who she discovers is a
musician with equally leftfield music and movie tastes
as herself.
As the months pass by Juno becomes closer to
As you can imagine various trials and tribulations are sent
to challenge the heroine, all of which she resolve in her
own way and under her conditions.
In all the movie is funny, intelligent and at times moving.
Ellen Page is outstanding as Juno, with all the other main
actors - especially Cera - giving top notch support.
Add to that a brilliant soundtrack including Kimya Dawson,
The Mouldy Peaches and
Festival Time In Weeg
THE
Featured is work by directors like Woody Allen, Wong Kar-wai,
Ermanno Olmi and George A Romero.
The festival has grown over the years and is now the
third largest in
The festival opens on Thursday 14 February with a gala
The festival closes on Sunday 24 February with another
premiere, Lars And The Real Girl is the story of a lonely
young man who finds himself the perfect girlfriend.
The fact that he met her on the internet and she’s a
doll, makes his friends and family a little anxious.
Add to this George A Romero’s latest zombie movie Diary
of the Dead, La Sconoscuita (The Unknown) the new film
from Cinema Paradiso director Giuseppe Tornatore, and
even a bit more acting from Eric Cantona in Le Deuxieme Souffle
(The Second Wind) and you’ve got quite an interesting line-up
of movies.
There will also be a festival of short films running at the
same time in
[1] For full listing and ticket details see: www.glasgowfilmfestival.org.uk
The
Wild Brunch
Keef Tomkinson
Keef casts his eye across life’s more leisurely pursuits in order to put a wee bit of CULTure into our lives.
My
advice? Generally try and avoid the frustratingly anger inducing
politics of the mainstream media.
But the other week I got a little mad. First of there was
news that the Countryside Alliance were marching again.
Although to be fair the reports of 22,500 pigs wandering through
The second culprit was Channel 4 news. It wasn’t their jolly
liberal meanderings into global political relations but a report
on the economic crisis threatening
The question was how you and me, and everyone one we know,
would be affected by the
A problem in Britland seemed to be that those folk whose wealth
generation and bonuses fuel our property values, purchases
etc blah, blah, were facing hard times and therefore I would
be havin’ it worse.
The answer from a few of experts was tighter wage controls.
Only then could these city slickers garner the wealth to
stimulate my economy. In other words I get less so they can
make more.
In some more other words. The better of I get at the moment
the worse it is for the economy and for me. God Damn Momma
Fornicators.
We really do get totally shafted don’t we?
I despise this myth of the entrepreneur, the banker, the share
monkey, and the financial adviser who are the big brains
behind our economy and fuel our living standards.
Capitalism is just a bunch of ideas, opportunities and risks which
create profit and debt, Debt that is profited on. Behind that
is me, you and a whole load of people making these ideas
a reality, making them fit for human consumption.
We’re working unpaid overtime, busting our ass, set a series
of inhumane target and deadlines. Our reward is stress, uncertainty
and a level recognition which barely beats being shat on.
A whole host of faceless suits would be nothing without us but
we must feel the pain so they live comfortably enough to imagine
news ways to make me work a 25-hour day.
Am I being too harsh? Should the Class War not just grow up?
Taking inspiration from my newest political idol, the Vanilla
Ice of Black Politics, Barrack Obama, Should we learn to
look to a better tomorrow but not at the expense of wealth
creators (or donors as he calls them)?
We could hang out with these people to shed the suit and see
the child or money hungry demon within. Obese teenagers could
have dinner with Douglas Ballantyne in a Wimpy and learn
how to make enough money to join his clubs.
Clinically stressed out office workers could spend a day with
their directors playing Tetris and Solitaire. Nurses and hospital
cleaners could visit healthboard consultants’ homes to view
the slide shows of the latest skiing trip to
Manufacturing workers made redundant by the vultures of Venture
Capital could go on an adventure weekend with share stories
how much money each made from company one left and one bought.
Tommae Sheridan made a cool £200,000 out of the
The possibilities, and the sheer horror of that scenario, are endless.
Let’s learn to love our masters. That way we might get more
crumbs from the table. That way we might not send them all
to Fife salt mines after the revolution (imagine that...
page ten
Indonesian Dictator Dies
President Suharto finally goes to hell
By Bill Bonnar
THE
West this week said good-bye to one of its favourite sons as President Suharto,
the Butcher of Jakarta, was buried and despatched to whatever hell would
take him.
Suharto was everything capitalism wanted from a third world leader; brutal,
corrupt, dependent and completely loyal to the system which rewarded
him well for services rendered.
Suharto’s rise to power began in 1965 when he became head of
However, it was what happened next which propelled Suharto to national prominence
and confirmed his status as one of the most vile dictators of the 20th
century.
Suharto staged a military coup, actively supported by the
The coup was one of the most brutal and violent in history with
upwards of one million people killed.
The target was the powerful left opposition centred on the Indonesian Communist
Party.
While the slaughter was going on a secret conference was being
held in
At that meeting
These two events went on to characterise Suharto rule for the next
32 years.
On the one hand a regime of unrelenting brutality and violence
which systematically smashed any opposition no matter from
which source.
On the other, a regime mired in corruption which treated the country
as a personal fiefdom and looted just about everything that
wasn’t nailed down.
Suharto himself is said to have had a personal fortune of $15billion
tucked away in foreign bank accounts.
Even the World Bank, used to financing dictators all over the world, had
to confess that that as much as a quarter of
Suharto also played the role of regional strongman on behalf of
his American paymasters regularly intervening in the affairs
of neighbouring countries.
Most notorious was the invasion and annexation of
Suharto was eventually swept from power in 1998 through a combination of
mass protests and economic crisis although made sure first that
he secured immunity from prosecution for his many crimes.
Despite a track record of forced economic growth he left a country ruined
by the economic blizzard which swept the region in 1997/98 and
mired by corruption and scandal at every turn.
Even today half of all Indonesians live on less than $2 a day while
the gap between rich and poor has never been wider.
No doubt a glass will be raised in his memory in the boardrooms
of multinational companies and in the White House whose interests
he served so well.
For the rest of humanity and for all those millions who suffered
so much under his rule the only regret is that he died before
being held accountable for his crimes.
German left make advance
JUBILANT
members of the German Left Party are celebrating important
advances in elections for two state parliaments.
In
Koch lost his majority in Sunday’s election after running a
divisive campaign targeting youth crime, particularly that committed
by immigrants.
The right wing CDU won 36.8 per cent compared with the 36.7
per cent for the Social Democrats (SPD), leaving them tied
on 42 seats each but
In
The SPD emerged with only 30.3 per cent of the vote, which
was their worst showing in the state since World War II.
The CDU won 68 seats, the SPD 48, the Free Democrats 13, the
Greens 12, and the Left 11 with 7.1 per cent of the vote.
And a further boost for the Left came in
The gains fulfilled Left party hopes of making a significant impact
outside the party’s heartland, which lies in the former German
Democratic Republic.
“That we have achieved this now is a remarkable advance and
the other parties will now have to come to terms with a five-party
system,” party leader Gregor Gysi said. “It is confusing them
already.”
by
Farooq Tariq,
IT
seems that the reign of General Pervez Musharraf is on
its last legs. Musharraf has become the most detested
president in the history of
Musharraf is unloved even by most religious extremists.
His policies have given them space into which they
have moved aggressively. But
The economic crisis has isolated him from the vast majority
of ordinary Pakistanis, including formerly close associates.
His traditional supporters among the Chamber of Commerce
has evaporated.
Musharraf’s comments about democracy during his nine-day European
tour that began on January 20 has annoyed democrats inside
and outside
The brutal assassination of former prime minister and leader of
the opposition Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), Benazir Bhutto,
was a shock to many European governments friendly
to Musharraf. The unprecedented reaction to Benazir’s
murder is shattering his image at home and abroad.
The
Has Musharraf outlived his usefulness to his imperialist masters?
Musharraf’s repeated assurances that nuclear weapons are
in safe hands and the army cannot be defeated by religious fundamentalists
illustrates the concerns of European countries.
His trip is to address these worries. However, his justification
for imposing a state of emergency, deposing and arresting
the country’s top judges, arresting thousands and
curbing the media will satisfy none.
In the face of the proposed 18 February general elections
there are two political camps: those participating
and those boycotting.
The massive turnout at the boycott meeting by All Parties
Democratic Movement on 22 January in Loralai,
The Pakistan Muslim league-Q (PML-Q), Musharraf’s favourite,
is in absolute crisis after the recent shortages of
food items, electricity and gas. The PML-Q candidates are the
target of anti-Mascara anger.
The general perception is that if you are against Mascara,
do not vote for the PML-Q.
Unless there is an all-out rigging of the election, there
is no guarantee that Musharraf’s supported candidates
will win. If PPP and Pakistan Muslim league- Nawaz
(PML-N) candidates gain a majority in the next parliament, Musharraf
will find it very difficult to repeat what he did following
the 2002 election, when he bribed many PML-N and PPP parliamentarians
to join hands with the PML-Q to form a majority government.
At the time, shortly after the 9/11 terrorist attacks,
Musharraf’s military regime was supported by both
US and European governments. But in 2008 he is isolated.
It will be difficult for any parliamentarian elected on
anti- Musharaf feeling to cross over to his camp.
Boycott or no boycott, the future scenario seems more and
more problematic for Musharraf. His departure seems
written on the front door of every home. Only another
9/11-like situation could alter his fate. Students are awakening
and so is the trade union movement. That, combined with the
pressure from the lawyers’ movement and growing participation
by civil society, may succeed in pushing Musharraf from power.